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Steel +22 %, freight +40 %, tariff review 41 days away. One chart + three moves to lock 0 % price rise.
- BUG-Corrected Data Sheet (Industry-Wide)
| Factor | Q4-2024 | Q3-2025 Forecast | Fix |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot-rolled coil | 870 USD/t | 950 USD/t | Source: World Steel Jan 2025, adjusted for HRC grade |
| Asia → USWC freight | 1 800 USD/FEU | 2 200 USD/FEU | Includes Red Sea & Panama drought surcharge |
| US Section 301 tariff | 25 % CN-origin | 25 %+9-17 % pending | Review results 30-Jun-2025; early entry locks 0 % |
| China 380 V earthing | Previously listed IT | 99 % TN-S / TT | Removed IT reference to avoid wiring error |
- One Chart to Rule Them All
Overlay these three curves on the same timeline:
Steel price
Q2-2024 up → Q2-2025 plateau → Q3-2025 spike
Ocean freight
Q1-2024 low → Q4-2024 rebound → Q3-2025 peak
Tariff cliff
Vertical red line at 30-Jun-2025 review deadline
Golden lock-in window: 15-Mar-2025 → 31-May-2025
Miss it → +14 % cost
- Zero-Error Steel Surcharge Formula
Surcharge = Net weight (kg) × 0.78 × ΔSteel (USD/1 000 kg) × 1.03
Example: 3 t lift 780 kg × 0.78 × 80 USD × 1.03 ≈ +50 USD / unit
- 3-Step Lock-In Clause (copy-paste ready)
- Steel cap clause
“Final price shall not exceed +5 % of contract signature value regardless of steel index.” - Freight forward lock
FFA 30–45 days, zero premium, saves 12–15 %. - Early customs entry
CIF arrival before 30-Jun-2025 locks current duty (25 % CN or 0 % others).
- Download
Comment “LOCK” → receive Excel calendar + timeline chart.
Bottom line
Inflation is inevitable; the timing isn’t. Follow the chart, turn a 14 % threat into a 0 % reality.